Dealmaking Recovers: NDA Activity Signals Two Straight Quarters of Growth

Earlier this year, the prevailing outlook was cautious: dealmaking looked flat, with no broad-based recovery in sight. Our mid-year update changes that. Second-quarter deal volume grew 3.2%, ending four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines, and June's NDA surge, which typically converts to closings within a quarter, points to a second consecutive quarter of growth in Q3.

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What the Data Revealed

+7.2%

June NDA volume growth year over year was the strongest print since October 2025, and the clearest sign yet that dealmaking is turning the corner.

+3.2%

Forecasted Q3 2026 deal growth, pointing to quarter-over-quarter growth for the first time in over three years.

0.1%

How close our model's last quarterly estimate landed to what actually happened.

A Second Shock,
Barely a Blip

NDA volume barely dipped after February's Iran and oil shock and fully reversed within the same month, in stark contrast with the 22% trough that followed the Liberation Day tariffs, indicating dealmakers have built shock absorbers.

Back-to-Back Quarterly Growth, A First in Three Years

Q2 2026 deal volume grew 3.2% year over year, snapping four straight quarterly declines. Our model projects Q3 growth at another 3.2%, the first two-quarter growth streak in years.

A Track Record to
Plan Around

As Hugh MacArthur, Senior Partner and Chairman of Global Private Equity at Bain & Company, put it: "The pace of NDAs has historically been a good long-term predictor of where the market is going." Our model called last quarter within 0.1 percentage points of the final outcome, and across 13 quarters of backtesting, the average gap is just 2.9%. That's a 90-day planning window that firms can build around.

A 90-Day Head Start

Ontra processes over 1,000 NDAs daily. The Market Index has turned that data into a 90-day preview of deal activity, a signal that has held firm across 39 months, two macro shocks, and a full recovery cycle.

Inside the Report:

  • The full correlation analysis: NDA volume vs. closed deal volume
  • How the Index captured captured multiple macro shocks in real time
  • Recovery paths by firm size and what they signal about market resilience
  • Ontra's Q3 2026 deal volume forecast with methodology and 13-quarter backtest validation
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