NDA Activity Signals Deal Recovery Heading into 2026
The Ontra Market Index gives private markets professionals their first reliable, forward-looking indicator of deal activity 90 days ahead — built on NDA volume across 150+ firms, including some of the largest asset managers in the world.
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What the Data Revealed
drop in deal activity detected months before closed deals
From -15% to nearly recovered in one quarter
days advance notice of deal activity
Liberation Day Shock Was Brief, Not Structural
Smaller Firms Hit Harder, But Recovered
Optimistic Forecast for Future Deal Volume
A First-of-its-Kind
Market Report
Ontra processes more than 365,000 NDAs and joinders annually across sponsors, advisers, and counterparties, making our dataset uniquely positioned to surface early deal signals. We performed a comprehensive correlation analysis, comparing over 1,000 Ontra firms’ buy-side NDA volume to Preqin’s subsequent deal closing data.
The Ontra Market Index demonstrates a strong positive correlation (r = 0.634) between NDA volume and closed deal volume three months later, with greater than 99% statistical confidence.
Private markets professionals can now see what’s coming before it appears in deal data.
Inside the Report:
- The full correlation analysis: NDA volume vs. closed deal volume
- How the Index captured the Liberation Day shock in real time
- Recovery paths by firm size & what it signals about market resilience
- Ontra's Q1 2026 deal volume forecast with methodology
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Ontra is not a law firm and does not provide any legal services, legal advice, or referral services and, as a result, we do not provide any legal representation to clients, nor do we participate in any legal representation of clients. The contents of this article are for informational purposes only, and are not intended to constitute or be relied upon as legal, tax, accounting, regulatory, or other professional advice, opinion, or recommendation by Ontra or its affiliates. For assistance or guidance regarding the impact or applicability of the topics discussed in this article to your business, please consult your legal or other professional advisers.